![]() I'd be shocked if this is anything but close and competitive for the full 25 minutes. I think he can do enough to grind out a decision. Perhaps I'd feel different if Colby had durability issues, but he doesn't. That said, I think Covington is a better wrestler than Usman, and I'm not so sure Leon is going to be able to get back to his feet if he is planted on his back. You're essentially betting on his grappling and cardio for success, and those are no sure things as a fighter ages. The valid concerns here are that Covington is getting up there in age and has rarely fought. He has to stick with the game plan here, as it's his clearest - and potentially only - path to victory. Heck, he failed on ALL 11 of his tries in the second Usman fight. ![]() The one thing we know about Covington is that even if the first and second takedown attempts fail, there will be a third and fourth forthcoming. The fact Leon was dragged to the mat on four separate occasions and still won going away in the second fight gives you an idea of how dominant he was on the feet. Combined, Kamaru landed 9-of-27 attempts over the course of the two bouts. It's worth noting that Edwards struggled to defend the takedown in BOTH fights against Usman. Colby is tough, and we've seen him taking a beating on the feet on countless occasions, but there's zero doubt prolonged striking exchanges favor Edwards. ![]() Whenever this fight is at distance, it will favor the champion in a major way. He's also the much bigger man, entering with a three-inch edge in height and two-inch edge in reach. ![]() Leon is clearly the cleaner, more technical striker. Now, wrestling isn't Masvidal's strong suit, and the going will be much tougher against Edwards, but it shows how dominant Colby can be at times. In the five-round main event against Masvidal, Covington connected on 6-of-15 attempts, good for 16:14 worth of control time, a ridiculous number, even for a 25-minute fight. He averages 4.05 takedowns per 15 minutes, while landing 45 percent of his attempts, a very high number. It's no secret that Colby relies almost entirely on his wrestling game and gas tank for success. Colby's very good, but is he great? He'll be 36 years of age next February, and once he steps in the Octagon on Saturday, he'll have competed just once per year dating back to 2020. Colby is just 2-2 in his past four bouts, with both defeats coming against Usman in title fights, but he knows how to get heat and remains a controversial figure, so it's no surprise the UFC is pushing him right back into the championship mix here. We haven't seen Covington since March 2022, at which time he was beating up an overmatched Jorge Masvidal. It's clear as day Leon - who hasn't lost since December 2015 - is one of the best welterweights in the world today. Leon appeared to be a step ahead of the former division king the entire way, and the final scores (48-46, 48-46, 47-47) would have been far more lopsided had Edwards not been docked a point by referee Herb Dean for a Round 3 fence grab. What wasn't a fluke was Edwards' brilliant effort in the rematch between the two this past March. The way Edwards won the UFC Welterweight Championship in August 2022 - a head kick to the head of Kamaru Usman with 56 seconds left in a fight in which he was being dominated - was plenty fluky. Vegas Odds: Edwards (-155), Covington (+130) Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $400k UFC 296 Special with $100k to first place. UFC 296 takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card. This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
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